Mortgage intelligence
Mortgage Rate Outlook: What the Indicators Show
We don't forecast rates. This page shows the official indicators that lead mortgage rates, so you can see the direction they've moved.
Built on official Canadian sourcesUpdated 2026-11-12
5-year bond yield
3.46%
+0.11 pts since Nov 9, 2026
Nov 10, 2026 · Bank of Canada
Policy rate
2.50%
Nov 11, 2026 · Bank of Canada
Prime rate
4.70%
Nov 11, 2026 · Bank of Canada
5-year posted
6.19%
Nov 4, 2026 · Bank of Canada
Average new insured, 5 years+ fixed
4.12%
+0.07 pts since Jul 2026
Aug 2026 · Bank of Canada
Leading indicators
- Fixed rates follow bond yields: the 5-year yield is 3.46% (Nov 10, 2026).
- Variable rates follow the policy rate (2.50% (Nov 11, 2026)) through prime (4.70%).
Recent movement
Planning for uncertainty
The stress test (5.25% floor or your rate plus 2 percentage points) already builds in a buffer. Use the sensitivity calculator to see your payment at higher and lower rates.
Sources
Informational only, not financial advice. Data as of the release snapshot generated 2026-11-12.